If your current fantasy roster still even partially resembles the team you drafted, you’re likely in the minority. For the rest of us normal people, I’ll be using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’sMLBwaiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy baseball statistics in regard to control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap gems to grab now before the squares figure it out next week. At the very bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as two-start pitchers and speculative adds.
(Stats are courtesy of our friends at Trumedia and capture action through June 12)
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Here we go…
Starting Pitchers
As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate whiffs (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While showing up on one of these two lists may be noise, I’m treating an appearance on both as a signal to immediately pull the trigger.
Available Starters: Multiple >30% Whiff Offerings (min. 25 Pitches Thrown Since May 1)
- Kyle Gibson, STL — Curveball 47.5%, Sweeper 45.1%, Changeup 35.7%
- Nick Martinez, CIN — Slider 44.1%, Curveball 41.4%, Changeup 39.8%
- Jose Soriano, LAA — Slider 46.2%, Split-Finger 30.5%
- Dane Dunning, TEX — Changeup 46.3%, Slider 39.6%
- Spencer Arrighetti, HOU — Sweeper 44.7%, Curveball 36.4%
- Gavin Stone, LAD — Slider 42.9%, Changeup 35.4%
- Roddery Munoz, MIA — Changeup 40.7%, Cutter 32.7%
- Dakota Hudson, COL — Curveball 37.3%, Slider 31.9%
- Tylor Megill, NYM — Slider 34.6%, Cutter 31.7%
- Carlos Carrasco, CLE — Curveball 32.0%, Slider 29.6%
- Michael Lorenzen, TEX — Changeup 31.6%, Cutter 29.5%
- Keaton Winn, SF — Slider 30.2%, 4-Seam Fastball 29.9%
Available Starters: <.330 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only (xwOBAcon)
- Drew Thorpe, CHW — 0.236 xwOBAcon
- Cade Povich, BAL — 0.263 xwOBAcon
- Hurston Waldrep, ATL — 0.268 xwOBAcon
- AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL — 0.279 xwOBAcon
- Adam Mazur, SD — 0.279 xwOBAcon
- Matt Waldron, SD — 0.306 xwOBAcon
- Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN — 0.324 xwOBAcon
- Ben Lively, CLE — 0.327 xwOBAcon
Hidden Gem: Starting pitcher injuries continue to pile up, eliminating most semblance of viable fantasy supply. Preparing to once again lower my parameters for acquisition, I was pleasantly surprised to discover my “next man up” near the top of the most-dropped list. The Mets’ Tylor Megill underwhelmed in his past two starts — 9.2 IP, 6 ER, 11 H, 5 BB, 12 K — but I contend, at only 25% rostered, he’s being criminally undervalued. I won’t pick the lowest fruit and complain about luck, so let’s just say he ran cold. In each of those appearances, opponents posted a minimum .355 BABIP and 57% LOB rate. I’ve always focused more on inputs to determine outcomes, and everything looks solid under the hood.
Interestingly enough, the list above doesn’t do Megill justice. The 28-year-old righty actually has four +30% Whiff offerings — the split-finger and curveball both just fell short of minimum swings. And therein lies the rub for my buy-low assertion. Simply put, he’s really good and the overreactions to rage-drop are remarkable. Megill has two different pitches with elite swing-and-miss ability to hitters from both sides of the plate. And he’s got an excellent four-seamer (118 Stuff+) with plus velocity (95.7 mph), above average spin (2215 rpm) and outrageous extension (7’5″). Arsenal depth will allow him to go in his bag for different tricks to achieve more 8-K performances like we just saw versus Miami and, most importantly, he currently owns a rotation spot with a chance to break out this summer.
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Available Hitters: >106.5 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Jake Burger, 3B, MIA — 109.9 mph EV
- Jesús Sánchez, OF, MIA — 109.5 mph EV
- Joc Pederson, UT, ARI — 109.5 mph EV
- Dominic Canzone, OF, SEA — 108.4 mph EV
- Heliot Ramos, OF, SF — 107.5 mph EV
- Trevor Larnach, OF, MIN — 107 mph EV
- Edmundo Sosa, SS, PHI — 107 mph EV
- Adam Duvall, OF, ATL — 107.1 mph EV
- Elehuris Montero, 1B, COL — 106.8 mph EV
- Brandon Lowe, 2B, TB — 106.8 mph EV
Available Hitters: <25% Chase Rate And >.385 xwOBAcon (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Nelson Velázquez, OF, KC — 23.3% Chase, 0.470 xwOBAcon
- Heliot Ramos, OF, SF — 24.8% Chase, 0.470 xwOBAcon
- Mitch Garver, UT, SEA — 15.7% Chase, 0.425 xwOBAcon
- Jon Singleton, 1B, HOU — 21.8% Chase, 0.417 xwOBAcon
- Patrick Bailey, C, SF — 21.8% Chase, 0.416 xwOBAcon
- Michael Busch, 1B, CHC — 20.9% Chase, 0.398 xwOBAcon
- Joey Gallo, 1B, WAS — 24.0% Chase, 0.398 xwOBAcon
- David Hamilton, SS, BOS — 24.4% Chase, 0.394 xwOBAcon
- Rob Refsnyder, OF, BOS — 21.0% Chase, 0.393 xwOBAcon
- Tommy Pham, OF, CHW — 17.0% Chase, 0.390 xwOBAcon
- Luke Raley, OF, SEA — 24.8% Chase, 0.390 xwOBAcon
- Jacob Stallings, C, COL — 20.6% Chase, 0.389 xwOBAcon
- Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT — 19.7% Chase, 0.385 xwOBAcon
Available Hitters: ≥18% Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drive Per Plate Appearance (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Adam Duvall, OF, ATL — 22.1% Pulled FBLD%
- Hunter Renfroe, OF, KC — 21.2% Pulled FBLD%
- Zach Neto, SS, LAA — 19.5% Pulled FBLD%
- Kevin Kiermaier, OF, TOR — 18.3% Pulled FBLD%
- Kevin Pillar, OF, LAA — 17.8% Pulled FBLD%
- Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF — 17.6% Pulled FBLD%
- Justin Turner, 1B, TOR — 17.3% Pulled FBLD%
- Eddie Rosario, OF, WAS — 17.2% Pulled FBLD%
- Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL — 17.2% Pulled FBLD%
- Wilmer Flores, 1B, SF — 17.1% Pulled FBLD%
- Nick Gonzales, 2B, PIT — 17.0% Pulled FBLD%
- Josh Rojas, 3B, SEA — 17.0% Pulled FBLD%
Hidden Gem: Sound the alarm in roto leagues of any size for Boston’s rookie middle infielder David Hamilton, especially if you need R+SB. Trevor Story’s injury forced the Red Sox to cycle through shortstops, but where Vaughn Grissom and Romy Gonzalez failed, Hamilton has come up aces. Personally, I sold myself on the move based solely on the frequency of playing time once I noticed his track record for roto production in the past — Hamilton boasted a pretty substantial 600 PA pace through his MiLB career — .251 BA/91 R/57 RBI/16 HR/73 SB. Yes, you read that stolen base number correctly.
Hamilton’s off to a great start for the Bo-Sox — 135 PA/.296 BA/21 R/10 RBI/4 HR/13 SB — who already slotted him as their No. 2 hitter twice in the past three days with Wilyer Abreu on the I.L. Not to abuse an already small sample, but if you close your eyes and just focus on when he secured every-day playing time, the results jump off the spreadsheet. Over the past month, Hamilton has cooked with gasoline — 85 PAs: 3 HR, 9 SB, .388 OBP, .575 SLG, .963 OPS, .225 ISO. While the power side to the profile likely wanes some down the stretch, he’s never been a zero and I’m always willing to buy into a power floor that comes buoyed by a +14% Pulled FBLD. Another week atop the BOS lineup and Hamilton’s rostership will skyrocket from 37%, where it is now on Yahoo’s transaction page, to 100%.
Relief Pitchers
Targeting roles over skills is something I’ve always preached when drafting closers, but zeroing in on stat combinations like elite command plus swing-and-miss-ability could help us identify the potential next men up, especially in more vulnerable bullpens. If you want to go deeper on RPs, I also strongly suggestGreg Jewett’s weekly column— nobody does relievers better.
Relievers: >15% Swinging Strike And <36% Ball Rates (min 15 IP)
- Dylan Lee, ATL — 18.1% SwStrk%, 29.5% Ball%
- Griffin Jax, MIN — 17.5% SwStrk%, 32.4% Ball%
- Ian Hamilton, NYY — 17.0% SwStrk%, 33.4% Ball%
- A.J. Minter, ATL — 15.9% SwStrk%, 32.4% Ball%
- Enyel De Los Santos, SDP — 15.4% SwStrk%, 32.3% Ball%
- Tyler Kinley, COL — 15.2% SwStrk%, 35.7% Ball%
- Daniel Hudson, LAD — 15.2% SwStrk%, 35.5% Ball%
- Alex Faedo, DET — 15.0% SwStrk%, 35.9% Ball%
- Alex Vesia, LAD — 14.8% SwStrk%, 35.8% Ball%
- Joe Jimenez, ATL — 14.7% SwStrk%, 31.5% Ball%
Top waiver wire adds by position
Catcher
- David Fry, CLE — +10 teams
- Mitch Garver, SEA — 10/12 teams
- Henry Davis, PIT — 12/15 teams
- Korey Lee, CHW — +15 teams
- Miguel Amaya, CHC — +15 teams
First Base
- Andrew Vaughn, CHW — +10 teams
- Elehuris Montero, COL — +12 teams
- Carlos Santana, MIN — 12/15 teams
- Michael Busch, CHC — +15 teams
- Michael Toglia, COL — 12/15 teams
- Tyler Soderstrom, OAK — +15 teams
Second Base
- Willi Castro, MIN — +10 teams
- Brendan Donovan, STL — +12 teams
- Nick Gonzales, PIT — 12/15 teams
- Brandon Lowe, TB — 12/15 teams
- Nick Loftin, KC — +15 teams
- Donovan Solano, SD — +15 teams
Shortstop
- David Hamilton, BOS — +10 teams
- Masyn Winn, STL — 10/12 teams
- Jackson Merrill, SD — 12 teams
- Zach Neto, LAA — 12/15 teams
- Paul DeJong, CHW — +15 teams
- J.P. Crawford, SEA — +15 teams
- Brayan Rocchio, CLE — +15 teams
Third Base
- Mark Vientos, NYM — +10 teams
- Justyn-Henry Malloy, DET — 10/12 teams
- Edmundo Sosa, PHI — 10/12 teams
- Matt Vierling, DET — +12 teams
- Gio Urshela, OAK — 12/15 teams
- Jake Burger, MIA— +15 teams
- Ezequiel Duran, TEX — +15 teams
Outfield, +10/12 Team
- Heliot Ramos, SF
- Nelson Velázquez, KC
- Alec Burleson, STL
- Jake Meyers, HOU
- Adam Duvall, ATL
- Alex Verdugo, NYY
- Andy Pages, LAD
- Brenton Doyle, COL
- Jo Adell, LAA
- Trevor Larnach, MIN
Outfield, +12/15 Team
- Bryan De La Cruz, MIA
- Kyle Isbel, KC
- Brent Rooker, OAK
- JJ Bleday, OAK
- Jesús Sánchez, MIA
- Jake McCarthy, ARI
- Rob Refsnyder, BOS
- Jesse Winker, WAS
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Jack Suwinski, PIT
Outfield, +15 Team/Only
- Blake Perkins, MIL
- Connor Joe, PIT
- Corey Julks, CHW
- Harrison Bader, NYM
- Mark Canha, DET
- Andrew McCutchen, PIT
- Gavin Sheets, CHW
- Kevin Pillar, LAA
- Nick Gordon, MIA
- Wenceel Pérez, DET
- Leody Taveras, TEX
- Jacob Young, WAS
- Michael Siani, STL
- Johan Rojas, PHI
- Jonny DeLuca, TB
- Richie Palacios, TB
- Miguel Andujar, OAK
- Dominic Canzone, SEA
- Jake Cave, COL
- David Peralta, SD
Stash Candidates
Hitters
- Jasson Dominguez, OF, NYY
- Greg Jones, OF, COL
- Orelvis Martinez, SS, TOR
- Brewer Hicklen, OF, MIL
- Andre Lipcius, 2B, LAD
Starters
- Tylor Megill, NYM ^
- Gavin Stone, LAD
- Hurston Waldrep, ATL ^
- Drew Thorpe, CHW ^
- Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL
- Tobias Myers, MIL ^
- José Soriano, LAA
- Cade Povich, BAL ^
- Cole Irvin, BAL
- Mitchell Parker, WAS
- Ryan Weathers, MIA
- Yariel Rodríguez, TOR ^
- Taj Bradley, TB
- Adam Mazur, SD
- Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN
- Alec Marsh, KC
- Matt Waldron, SD
- Michael Lorenzen, TEX
- Griffin Canning, LAA
- Cody Poteet, NYY
- Jake Irvin, WAS
- Jordan Wicks, CHC
- J.P. Sears, OAK
- Ben Lively, CLE
- Albert Suárez, BAL
- Mitch Spence, OAK
- Ryan Feltner, COL
- Chris Paddack, MIN
- Joey Estes, OAK
- Colin Rea, MIL
- Cooper Criswell, BOS
- Trevor Rogers, MIA
- Hogan Harris, OAK
- Logan Allen, CLE
- David Peterson, NYM
- Luis L. Ortiz, PIT
- Luis Medina, OAK
- Bailey Falter, PIT
- Roddery Muñoz, MIA
- Slade Cecconi, ARI
- DJ Herz, MIA
^ — Riser/First Appearance
Relievers
- Yimi García, TOR
- Ryne Stanek, SEA
- Tyler Kinley, COL
- Yennier Cano, BAL
- Griffin Jax, MIN
- John Schreiber, KC
- Bryan Hudson, MIL
- JoJo Romero, STL
- Justin Slaten, BOS
- Daniel Hudson, LAD
- Hunter Harvey, WAS
- A.J. Puk, MIA
- Luis García, LAA
- Colin Holderman, PIT
- Jeremiah Estrada, SD
- Mark Leiter Jr., CHC
- Hunter Gaddis, CLE
- Luke Weaver, NYY
- John Brebbia, CHW
- Shelby Miller, DET
- Tyler Rogers, SF
Ranking Next Week’s Available Two-Steps
- Jake Irvin, WAS — vs. ARI (Slade Cecconi); @ COL (Austin Gomber)
- Braxton Garrett, MIA — vs. STL (Sonny Gray); vs. SEA (Bryan Woo)
- Aaron Civale, TB — @ MIN (Pablo Lopez); @ PIT (Bailey Falter)
- Tobias Myers, MIL — @ LAA (Griffin Canning); @ SD (Michael King)
- Daniel Lynch, KC — @ OAK (Hogan Harris); @ TEX (Jon Gray SP)
- David Peterson, NYM — @ TEX (Jon Gray); @ CHC (Javier Assad)
- Cody Poteet, NYY — vs. BAL (Albert Suarez); vs. ATL (Spencer Schwellenbach)
- Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL — vs. DET (Reese Olson); @ NYY (Cody Poteet)
- Randy Vasquez, SD — @ PHI (Cristopher Sanchez); vs. MIL (TBA)
- Slade Cecconi, ARI — @ WAS (Jake Irvin); @ PHI (Cristopher Sanchez)
- Roddery Muñoz, MIA vs. STL (Lance Lynn); vs. SEA (Bryce Miller)
- Hogan Harris, OAK — vs. KC (Daniel Lynch); vs. MIN (Pablo Lopez)
- Jonathan Cannon, CHW — vs. HOU (Ronel Blanco); @ DET (Reese Olson)
- Bailey Falter, PIT — vs. CIN (TBA); vs. TB (Aaron Civale)
- Cal Quantrill, COL — vs. LAD (Walker Buehler); vs. WAS (Mitchell Parker)
- Austin Gomber, COL — vs. LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto); vs. WAS, (Jake Irvin)
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand newbest-selling Substackpage for all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of David Hamilton: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)
John is a lifetime fan and longtime analyst who crossed into content creation with his integration of technical analysis in the MLB space. He’s the man behind the @MLBMovingAvg handle on Twitter, launching the MLBMA algorithm in 2018 after having written several successful models, focused on creating the preeminent handicapping tool for fantasy baseball and sports betting. He's also the Director of MLB content at windailysports.com and will not rest until the Quality Start is fixed. Follow John on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg
